Shai Gilgeous Alexander Tops Risky NBA Contracts

Merlin sees the league’s latest audit of 2027-28 contracts and the moment a prize becomes a prison. The piece ranks the 10 riskiest deals — led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s $273 million commitment — and points to age, injury history, length and CBA rules as the forces that sap roster flexibility. Names like Tatum, Embiid, Booker and Jackson underline the danger when big paydays meet uncertainty. Merlin says the tipping point is clear: when a player’s cap hit consumes roughly 20 percent or more of the salary cap with multiple years left and availability or production falls. Missing about 25 percent of games over two seasons, or a steep post-injury drop after age 30, typically flips value into burden via luxury tax, apron limits and blocked roster moves.