NBA News
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NBA Extension Deadline: Duren, Ivey, Herro
Merlin sees the league in late-sprint mode: agents called extension talks "the torture chamber" as teams have until 6 p.m. ET Monday to sign rookie-scale extensions or extension-eligible veterans. Notable unsigned suitors include Christian Braun, Jalen Duren, Jaden Ivey, Tari Eason, Walker Kessler, Bennedict Mathurin and Mark Williams; unsigned players would become restricted free agents next summer. Tyler Herro headlines the veterans running out of time. This deadline matters because it forces teams to choose control now or risk player leverage later. Veterans like Kevin Durant can still sign in-season and players with 2026-27 options (e.g., Trae Young) have alternate paths, so expect last-hour deals and strategic passes. Merlin senses the final hours will tell which front offices prefer certainty and which bet on future flexibility. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds of at least two of the noted 2022 draftees signing extensions by the deadline: 55%.
Grimes-76ers Standoff: $39M Offer, One-Year Likely
The 76ers and restricted free agent Quentin Grimes remain far apart: Philadelphia reportedly offered a four-year, $39 million package, while Grimes’ agent thinks he’s worth $20–25 million per year. Reports now suggest a shorter path — a one-year deal slightly above his $8.7M qualifying offer, or a one-year "balloon" without a no-trade clause — is "most likely," and sources say the sides are "very far apart on a deal." This matters because Grimes averaged 21.9 points in 28 games after the February trade, and his contract decision affects Philly’s backcourt construction and cap flexibility. Merlin sees both caution and promise. The sample size of Grimes’ breakout is small, the Sixers have a crowded guard room (Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain, rookie VJ Edgecombe), and Philly values roster control. If Grimes wants long-term security he may push elsewhere or bet on a bigger market offer; Philly may prefer short-term flexibility. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds of Grimes signing a multi-year deal with Philadelphia this summer: 20%.
Clippers' James Harden Reportedly Not In Shape
Clippers guard James Harden heads into the regular season with questions about his conditioning after scouts told ESPN’s Brian Windhorst he "is not even in that great of shape." Harden’s preseason line — 6.0 points on 36.8% shooting, 7.7 assists across three starts — underscores the concern. At 36, his fitness will shape minutes, load management and Los Angeles’ title window. Merlin sees a familiar pattern: Harden once joked about playing himself into "James Harden shape," and he’s found form after slow starts before. The Clippers have depth — Chris Paul, Bradley Beal, Kriss Dunn — to carry the backcourt early, but the team’s ceiling still hinges on Harden rediscovering his rhythm. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds of Harden being back to "James Harden shape" by the All-Star break: 60%.
Kawhi Leonard Denies Clippers‑Aspiration Salary‑Cap Scheme
Kawhi Leonard spoke publicly for the first time about allegations that the Clippers and owner Steve Ballmer used a no-show endorsement with bankrupt firm Aspiration to skirt the NBA salary cap. Leonard said, "I don't deal with conspiracies," denied not doing work and added he "was never paid the full amount," while Pablo Torre's reporting cited a four-year, $28M deal and a separate $20M equity guarantee. The Clippers and NBA have opened investigations; Ballmer and the team deny wrongdoing. Merlin sees why this matters: it’s not just about one signature or check — it tests how the league polices creative money moves and could ripple through roster construction for years. With Aspiration’s collapse and questions about donations and equity, the truth may be slow, but consequential. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds Kawhi faces NBA discipline this season: 30%.
Kuminga Agrees to Two-Year Deal; Agent Aaron Turner Irks Warriors
The Warriors and Jonathan Kuminga reached a deal: a two-year, $48.5 million contract with a team option for Year 2, ending one of the last notable restricted free-agent sagas. The process drew heat — some in Golden State were “irritated” that agent Aaron Turner went on a media tour while negotiating and said Kuminga was “prepared to sign a one-year qualifying deal” if necessary. Trade talks with Sacramento and Phoenix, including a reported near-$90M offer, also fizzled. Merlin sees value and volatility in equal measure. Kuminga showed real flashes — 24.3 points on 55.4% in four playoff games without Curry — but his season-long efficiency slipped. The Warriors kept the upside; whether Turner’s tactics bruise trust or were worth the price will shape next year’s chemistry. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds Kuminga averages 18+ PPG and 50% TS next season: 30%.
Kawhi Leonard Aspiration Bombshell: Clippers, Ballmer Questioned
Merlin sees fresh smoke around Kawhi Leonard’s alleged side deals: Pablo Torre reports Leonard "was personally 'guaranteed' another $20 million in Aspiration equity" and sources described a "so-called put option" to sell that equity back for $20 million. Torre also says the Clippers and owner Steve Ballmer tried to route $28 million as an endorsement to dodge the salary cap. Ballmer admitted he made an introduction — "We even found the email..." — and the NBA has opened an investigation. One coach called it "embarrassing for the league." Merlin senses this is more than gossip. If those guarantees and the put option are confirmed, penalties could range from fines to lost cap relief or reputational damage for the Clippers and Ballmer. Mark Cuban’s defense won’t calm every skeptic; the league will press for clarity before media day and the season starts. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds the NBA levies fines or other discipline on the Clippers or Ballmer this season: 45%.
Al Horford Agrees to Join Warriors — 2-Year, $12M
Merlin sees Al Horford has agreed to join the Golden State Warriors, with Shams Charania reporting that "Horford verbally committed to the Warriors on Sunday, sources said." The veteran center/forward is set on a reported two-year, $12 million deal (second year a player option). This matters because Golden State lost Kevon Looney in free agency and needed size, defense and reliable shooting—traits Horford still offers—making him an immediate fit alongside Stephen Curry and the team's guard-heavy attack. Merlin remembers old champions: Horford, 39, comes off a Celtics title and averaged 9.0 points and 6.2 rebounds last year. Boston likely let him walk partly for payroll and tax reasons. Expect Horford to be a steady veteran glue piece—defensive switchability, corner threes and late-game poise—while the Warriors finalize Jonathan Kuminga’s status and settle rotations. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds Horford is a regular rotation player (12+ minutes per game): 80%.
Ben Simmons' Next Chapter: Celtics, Timberwolves, Pistons
Russell Westbrook’s reported deal with the Sacramento Kings removes one veteran option from the market, steering teams in need of playmaking toward Ben Simmons. Simmons — now a free agent after stints with the Nets and Clippers — isn’t the shooter he once was in Philadelphia, but he still offers multi-positional defense and ball-handling that can plug rotation gaps. The article highlights three fits: Boston (short on reliable depth with Jayson Tatum injured), Minnesota (to ease Mike Conley and guard wings for Anthony Edwards) and Detroit (a win-now add alongside Cade Cunningham and insurance for Jaden Ivey). Merlin sees a practical, not flashy, return: Simmons is a depth piece who buys minutes and matchup versatility rather than scoring punch. Each suitor offers context — short-term cover in Boston, playoff polish in Minnesota, and immediate utility for Detroit’s push — making him a plausible low-cost gamble for contenders. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds Ben Simmons signs with Boston, Minnesota, or Detroit this offseason: 60%.
Austin Reaves Raves: Bronny Impressing in Lakers' Preseason
Merlin sees Austin Reaves publicly praise Bronny James’ preseason work — “you've been one of the better players out on the floor almost every day” — and that praise matters. Bronny has shown energy and playmaking in camp and the G League (21.9 PPG, 5.4 AST, 38% 3PT in 11 games), but remains streaky from the floor (1-for-12 vs. Phoenix, 2-for-6 vs. Golden State) after a limited rookie season (2.3 points in 6.7 minutes). The Lakers must weigh those flashes against his inconsistency when shaping the rotation. Merlin notes that a veteran’s voice like Reaves’ can buy confidence and opportunity, but the Lakers’ backcourt is crowded. If Bronny tightens his jumper and keeps his defense and playmaking crisp, short bursts could become steady minutes. If not, he stays a developmental piece who swings between South Bay and spot NBA duty. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds Bronny earns a steady rotation spot (15+ MPG) this season: 35%.
Ex-Celtics Paul Pierce Arrested for DUI in L.A.
Former Celtic and Hall of Famer Paul Pierce was arrested on suspicion of misdemeanor DUI in Los Angeles after officers found him "asleep at the wheel" of his Range Rover on the 101 Freeway, following a separate multi-vehicle crash. He was cited and released, and the case was forwarded to the Los Angeles City Attorney for review. This matters because Pierce is a high-profile ex-player whose public image and post-playing career opportunities could be affected by criminal proceedings. Merlin sees a cautionary tale: at 47, a single night can ripple beyond the court. The CHP said "officers noted signs of alcohol impairment" and prosecutors will decide next steps — expect a quick legal review, public statements, and potential steps like counseling or community service if charges stick. His on-court legacy endures, but reputation is fragile. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds of Paul Pierce being charged with misdemeanor DUI: 65%.
Dallas Mavericks Unveil Throwback Jerseys — Davis, Irving, Flagg
The Dallas Mavericks teased a throwback uniform — white and royal blue with green trim reminiscent of their 1980–81 debut — set to be unveiled Thursday. The reveal matters because it arrives as Dallas pivots into a new era: Luka Doncic is gone, Anthony Davis arrived in the trade, the Mavs picked Cooper Flagg at No. 1, and Kyrie Irving recovers from a torn ACL, so nostalgia is being used to knit a reshaped roster together. Merlin sees the jersey as a talisman more than a trend: a way to rally a fan base while Jason Kidd tries to blend veteran firepower and rookie promise. The throwback will spark excitement, but the real test is chemistry and health — uniforms don’t win series, lineups do. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds of Dallas making the playoffs this season: 60%.
Lakers Bet Big: JJ Redick Gets Extension
JJ Redick received a contract extension from the Lakers ahead of his second season after a reported four-year, $32 million deal last summer and a 50-32 debut that ended in a first-round loss to Minnesota. Rob Pelinka said the move was "just to make it clear that he's the basketball leader in terms of our coaching and on-court performance," signaling the front office’s trust in a rookie NBA head coach who earned results quickly. Merlin sees stability being purchased with a wink: Redick’s sudden rise from analyst to trusted coach gives Los Angeles a clear voice while LeBron’s future remains uncertain. With recent roster maneuvers and a separate marquee extension mentioned, the Lakers are betting on continuity and coaching momentum — but next season’s wins will be the true spellbook. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds of the Lakers reaching the NBA Finals next season: 30%.
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Trade Machine Frenzy: Booker, Herro, Maxey
As camps near, the writer fires up a trade machine and draws up ten realistic blockbuster swaps that could still reshape rosters — from Tyler Herro possibly landing in Portland to Devin Booker being linked to Detroit or Philadelphia, Keegan Murray to OKC, and Lauri Markkanen to the Sixers. These scenarios matter because injuries, expiring deals and competing timelines could turn mock trades into real ones; as Pistons owner Tom Gores put it, "Our urgency is not going to stop." Merlin sees front offices squinting at short windows and long rebuilds alike. Contenders may chase scoring wings or buy-ins, while asset-rich teams stockpile firsts and young pieces. The common thread: teams will trade around cap math and health, so an early-season surprise or injury could make several of these hypotheticals very real. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds of at least one blockbuster from this list happening before the trade deadline: 65%.
Salary Apron Snags Kevin Durant's Houston Extension
Merlin sees the ledger snarled: Kevin Durant, in Houston for the final year of his deal, does not currently have the two-year, $120M extension available — Brian Windhorst says it’s “clear” the Rockets haven’t put that offer on the table because “it would be done” if they had. Cap realities matter: a likely Tari Eason rookie extension, Amen Thompson’s rising value, and Fred VanVleet’s $25M option could push Houston toward the second apron and block a max move. Durant told reporters, “I can’t tell you exactly when… it will happen.” Merlin senses bargaining beneath the max. The Rockets must choose between paying young core pieces now or carving out space for Durant; that arithmetic will shape whether Houston signs, restructures, or delays. Durant’s public patience buys time, but the team’s payroll spellbook will decide the timing. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds Houston signs Durant to that two-year, $120M extension before the season starts: 25%.
Jonathan Kuminga Signs — Warriors Trade Whispers Persist
Jonathan Kuminga ended a summer standoff by signing a two-year, $48.5 million deal with a 2026–27 team option and a 15% trade kicker. The contract gives short-term security, but negotiations revealed friction — the Warriors reportedly offered multiple structures while Kuminga pushed for a player option — and he waived his no‑trade protection, meaning he can be moved as soon as Jan. 15. Merlin senses both promise and motion. Kuminga averaged 15.3 points last season and erupted for 24.3 in a playoff stretch without Curry, so he has real upside; Coach Steve Kerr stressed "Jimmy is an alpha" and that "Steph and Draymond are alphas... they run that locker room." As Shams Charania noted, "Over the past two months, the Warriors have had a standing offer..." The two-year path lets Kuminga bet on himself but also makes him a tradeable asset if Golden State seeks change. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds Kuminga is traded by next February: 40%.
LeBron, Curry, Durant Dethroned in NBA Rank
ESPN’s NBA Rank 2025 put Stephen Curry (No. 7), LeBron James (No. 8) and Kevin Durant (No. 9) behind six younger stars, and league voices told Tim Bontemps they largely agree. A Western coach said, “They should be there. They’re just not top-five guys anymore,” with scouts adding, “They are for sure [top 10] as long as they are healthy.” Age, availability and rising young cores explain the shift — but the trio still matters. Merlin sees a passing of the torch that’s more ceremony than exile. Their resumes and steady play keep them influential; yet the future — Jokic, Dončić, SGA, Giannis, Wembanyama, Edwards — is staking claim. Durability will decide whether veterans tilt a title race or watch the new kings rule. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds of at least one of LeBron, Curry or Durant winning the 2025-26 title: 45%.
Nikola Jokić: Staying With Denver Nuggets Forever
Merlin sees Nikola Jokić quietly end the rumors: "My plan is to be a Nugget forever," he told reporters, easing fears that the late-season shakeup — firing coach Michael Malone and the GM turnover — would push him out. That matters because Jokić remains the franchise cornerstone, with two guaranteed years plus a 2027-28 player option and the option to sign a short-term extension by Oct. 20 (or wait to add a fourth year next year). Merlin notes the plot thickens but leans calm: Denver promoted David Adelman, Jokić just averaged near a triple-double, and Jamal Murray’s health will set the ceiling. A committed superstar buys the front office time to stabilize, yet personnel and contract choices this autumn will reveal whether the peace holds. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds Jokić signs an extension before Oct. 20: 20%.
Bruce Brown Chooses Nuggets Over Lakers, Suns
Merlin sees Bruce Brown elected to return to the Denver Nuggets on a one-year, $3.1 million deal despite reported interest from the Lakers and Suns. Brown — the 2022-23 sixth man who keeps a highlight reel on his phone — said, "I'm just gonna go back to Denver because I just think it's a perfect fit for me." Healthy after knee arthroscopy and familiar with Denver’s system, his return strengthens what could be the league’s best bench and matters for a title chase against the West’s top teams. Merlin notes the choice was about fit and winning more than money: he sat courtside to "prove a point" and stayed connected to teammates. On a short deal Brown is both trusted depth and an audition; if he recaptures his 2022-23 form, Denver’s rotation gains a decisive swing player, but minutes are crowded with new additions. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds Bruce Brown is a key playoff rotation piece for Denver this season: 75%.
LeBron Sidelined with Sciatica, Out vs Warriors
LeBron James will miss the Lakers’ 2025‑26 opener at Golden State on Oct. 21 while he’s treated for right‑side sciatica and will be reevaluated in about three to four weeks. The team first reported nerve irritation in his glute and he missed two preseason games; coach J.J. Redick said James is “on his own timeline,” and ESPN’s Dave McMenamin quoted the club as wanting to “be overly cautious with LeBron” to ensure he’s best for April–June. With James out early, Luka Dončić must shoulder the load. Merlin sees sensible long‑game thinking. At 41 and coming off a sprained MCL, James’ value is playoff time, not exhibition nights. The Lakers may sacrifice early wins and test their depth, but protecting LeBron now could pay dividends later — provided the bench learns to breathe without him. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds LeBron is ready by Nov. 15: 65%.
Trae Young’s Three-Word Post Sparks Hawks’ Extension Doubt
Trae Young, entering the final guaranteed year of his deal and eligible for a four-year, $229 million extension, stirred contract uncertainty with a cryptic three-word social post. He downplayed disappointment — "I don't know [about] the word disappointment" — and emphasized focus: "Who knows what the future is for me. But right now I'm here and I'm present." That matters because Atlanta reshaped its roster (Kristaps Porziņģis, Nickeil Alexander‑Walker, Luke Kennard) and the Hawks need clarity on their franchise point guard as they chase a wide‑open Eastern Conference. Merlin sees a crossroads: a hot start could smooth talks and keep Trae in Atlanta, while early struggles would tempt other teams into the market and push management toward a difficult choice. The season’s first month will reveal whether magic or mutiny takes hold. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds of Trae requesting a trade this season: 25%.
Kings Offer Malik Monk For Kuminga — Warriors Wary
Merlin sees a trade to send Jonathan Kuminga from Golden State to Sacramento stirring back to life. Sam Amick reports talks "renewed earlier this week" after a month; the Kings offered Malik Monk and a lottery‑protected 2030 first for Kuminga and would give him a three‑year, $63 million deal. There’s been "no significant progress" — the Warriors are wary of Monk’s 2027‑28 $21.5 million player option and want more flexibility. Merlin notes Kuminga averaged 15.3 points, holds restricted free‑agent leverage, and has rejected offers that leave too much team control. Monk had a career year but his contract complicates a swap. With training camp on Sept. 29 adding pressure, Merlin expects talks to continue but thinks a quick resolution is unlikely. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds this trade happens before camp: 25%.
Tyler Herro Unbothered Over Heat Contract Extension
Merlin sees Miami guard Tyler Herro entering his extension window (through Oct. 20) eligible for a three-year, $150M max, and he’s calm about it. Herro said, "I expect to get something done" but added, "It's not as important as you all think," stressing he wants to remain in Miami "at a respectable number." He’ll miss at least the first month after ankle surgery, so timing and health matter. Merlin knows this matters because Herro just earned his first All-Star nod and wants both respect and stability without becoming a distraction. The Heat prefer continuity; Herro’s stance — firm on value but flexible on a max — gives both sides room to negotiate. If he returns healthy, the scales tip toward a deal; if not, leverage shifts. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds of Herro signing an extension during the window: 75%.
Redick Slams Lakers' Preseason Transition Defense — 21 Fast-Break PPG
JJ Redick didn't mince words — he called the Lakers' transition defense "dogs--t" after two preseason losses, with L.A. surrendering 21.0 fast-break points per game. Austin Reaves echoed the dilemma, saying the team is still figuring out "when to crash, when not to crash" after grabbing offensive boards. Missing stars like LeBron James and Luka Dončić explain some rust, but transition defense was already a weakness last year (25th in opponent fast-break points at 16.9). Merlin sees a familiar riddle: hustle versus haste. Redick has two weeks and four preseason games to teach quicker outlets, smarter rebounding decisions and rotation discipline before Oct. 21. Opponents are already scheming for slow closeouts — tighten the process now or watch fast breaks decide close games all season. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds the Lakers improve their transition defense to league average by opening night: 40%.
2025 NBA Redraft: Cooper Flagg No.1, Ace Bailey Soars
A preseason-fueled re-draft reshuffles the 2025 class but keeps the big picture intact: Cooper Flagg remains the clear No. 1, Dylan Harper and VJ Edgecombe hold early slots, while Ace Bailey’s hot preseason lifts him into the top five. The exercise exposes winners and losers — Jase Richardson looks like a steal who should have gone much earlier, Thomas Sorber’s torn ACL dents his stock, and teams favored fit and upside over strict college production. Merlin sees teams using real-game minutes as a crystal ball: shooters and positional fit rose in value, Brooklyn doubled down on high-upside talent, and front offices showed patience with injured bigs. Early rotations and the first month of the season will either prove these preseason truths or send scouts back to the drawing board. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds Cooper Flagg wins Rookie of the Year this season: 70%.
Heat Chased Giannis — Would Trade Without Bam Adebayo
Merlin sees Miami monitored Giannis all summer and, per Barry Jackson, were willing to make an offer to the Bucks that "did not include Bam Adebayo" if he requested a trade. But Antetokounmpo never seemed to consider Miami — ESPN's Shams Charania reported the Knicks were the only real suitors: "The Bucks picked up the Knicks' call... but the teams never got traction." This matters because the Heat lack enough young assets and picks to land a superstar, and Jackson says it's "unlikely" the Bucks would accept a package without Adebayo. Merlin notes Miami prefers to keep cap space for the 2027 window that could include Giannis, Jokic, Davis or Mitchell, and after a 37–45 season the Heat may be cautious. Expect Miami to posture — always in the shopping game — but to avoid mortgaging their core unless Giannis formally demands out; only then will real chaos begin. 🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction: Odds of Giannis requesting a trade this season: 20%.